Stepping Stones of Investment

 

Let me preface by saying that this is not investment advice, but this is my plan for investing in stocks.

In the simplest terms, investing is buying part of a company as shares, and then selling at a profit.  The goal is to buy at a low price and sell at a high price in the shortest amount of time to maximize your return on investment.  These are my stock investing principles for trading within an IRA.  Time for some definitions and formulas.

Return-on-Investment (ROI) is: (Share Sell Price / Share Purchase Price) – 1 = ROI %

ROI Example:  If you buy 100 shares of WINT at $1.71 and sell them at $1.82, your ROI for that trade is (1.82/1.71) – 1 = 6.43%.

Profit is:  (Shares Sold x Sell Price) – (Shares Bought x Purchase Price) = Profit ($)

Profit Example:  If you buy 100 shares of WINT at $1.71 and sell them at $1.82, your Profit for that trade is (100 x 1.82) – (100 x 1.71) = $11.00.

Now time for a little strategy via the Stepping-Stone Principle.  Let’s say the spring rains have been relentless and your yard is saturated.  You need to fetch some tools from the shed, but you do not want to get your feet wet in the standing water in the yard.  Your goal is the shed, which is 30 feet from the back door.  If there was only one stepping-stone 15 feet from the back door, you would have be a Olympic long-jumper to reach it, only to find yourself stuck on an island with no runway for your next jump.  In investing, this would be like saying you were only going to wait for large ROI’s, like 50% or up.  You will spend most of your investment career feeling like you are stuck with a stock that mostly disappoints and you seldom make money. 

If you have 3 stepping-stones spaced 7.5 feet apart, you will still be jumping pretty far from stone to stone.  This would be equivalent to 25% ROI.  You’re probably going to get your feet wet again even with three!

However, if you have 11 stepping-stones spaced 2.5 feet apart, that is a comfortable walk to the shed. 

The Investment Stepping-Stone Principle:  Long-term investment goals are more easily achieved with more frequent yet smaller ROI goals. 

If I want to double my investment, I could buy a stock and sit on it for a long time and wait for it to grow in value and then double.  That is an option, although it may take a year or two, or more.  But if I calculate that a specific stock’s average daily low is 3-5% less than its opening price, AND that the average range from previous day low to next day high is 5-7% or greater, then I have laid out the plan for my stepping-stones.  If my target stock opens at 1.73, I will create a limit purchase bid at 1.68.  If the bid is not picked up, then I try again the next day based off the next day’s opening price.  If the purchase goes through at my target price, then it is expected because that falls within the average.  Then the next day, I will set my sell price for something comfortable that falls on the low-side of the next day high average range.  I will target a 4% ROI, so I set my limit sell price at 1.75.  This is a likely outcome since it falls on the low-side of the calculated previous day low to next day high average.  When my stock sells, there is always a little regret that I did not set my sights higher, because I have seen it go up another 5% after I sold sometimes, but I have also seen it go the opposite direct, so be careful to not play at the edge of the average.  All investments have risks.  Even this strategy might fail me since averages always contain some anomalies.  When you are looking at your average ranges, you might want to throw out the anomalies and set your target price after excluding those data points.

 

In the long run, this will give me a 40% ROI per month, but really 48% compound ROI since I will also be reinvesting my profits with each subsequent purchase.  By targeting a 4% ROI with each purchase, and planning to sell the next day, it creates a path of stepping-stones that yields more than double the investment in 2 months (119.1% ROI).  Small achievable stepping-stones will empower the investor with more control and a better performance than a wait-and-see or moon-shot approach.